CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-06T15:13Z (-4.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1067.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 624.981 Acceleration: 0.331021 Duration in seconds: 221820.07 Duration in days: 2.5673619 % Compiled module: CALDAT. t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.33 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 698.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/11/2024 Time: 15:13 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 24.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-11-05T14:29Z
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